Letter to the Editor: The Case for Mississippi
An abridged version of this letter has appeared in several Mississippi newspapers:
In my lifetime, Mississippi has never been a swing state. There have been essentially two choices: Red and Dark Red. A quick glance at the polls would indicate that this year would be no different. I think, however, the media has sold Mississippi short yet again and I want to now explain why Obama supporters should not count Mississippi out. Simple math shows that Mississippi is still up for grabs.
The population of Mississippi is estimated at 3 million people, 26% of them are under 18, giving us about 2.22 million eligible voters. Assuming a 55% engagement rate, this will give us 1,221,000 people actually voting, approximately 70,000 more than in 2004. Given the nationally increased awareness of this election and its historic significance and the rate of population increase in Mississippi, I would say it’s fair to assume that an additional 70,000 people is a conservative bump. My gut tells me it will be higher.
Now, for some totals, assuming that we will have 1,221,000 people voting and assuming that since the population of Mississippi is 37% black, that 37% of the voters will be black, and also assuming that national trends continue and black voters break (at the conservative end) at 95% for Obama, we begin with a vote count of 429,181 for Obama and 22,588 for McCain. Since Asians, Hispanics, and American Indians currently comprise only about 4% of the population, for the purposes of this experiment, we’ll group them in with the white electorate so you know I’m not padding the numbers. This leaves us with 769,230 voters. If Obama is able to pull away 25% of these voters, he will beat McCain 621,488 to 599,510, 50.8% to 49%. That’s right. John McCain has to secure a solid 75% of the white voters in Mississippi to keep Mississippi’s 6 electoral votes.
The latest poll, a Research 2000 poll taken right after the Republican National Convention gives McCain a 52-39 advantage with 3% going third party and 6% undecided. This number, however, is misleading, as it is of a mere 600 “likely voters”. “Likely voters” are generally defined as a voter that has voted in one of the last two elections. This completely eliminates anyone under 22, a group that nationally has trended by about a 30 point spread towards Obama. Also, this poll shows 13% of blacks as ‘undecided’ and only 2% of whites.
This poll shows also 14% of whites are voting for Obama with 81% going McCain. Given that’s only 10% away from where we need to be, it’s time to hustle. Get on the phone. Walk the streets of your neighborhood. Call churches. Call colleges. Call high schools. Secure a location and get people, especially young people, registered to vote. You have until October 3rd. Then get those people to the polls. Witness absentee ballots. Take election day off and provide transportation. Write a letter to the editor of your newspaper. Make more phone calls. Vote. The media has used their junk research to declare Mississippi lost, so you have nothing to lose and everything, EVERYTHING, to gain. Now, let’s go beat these guys.
Rodney Hopper II
